THEORY: It’s safest to assume your cost effectiveness findings really are too good to be true
I emailed my colleague a link to this GiveWell post and she beat me to blogging about it. In short, there were five spreadsheet errors in a major Gates-funded study on Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (DCP2) that led to the cost-effectiveness of soil-transmitted-helminth (STH) treatment being overestimated by a factor of 100.
This is, indeed, one of the many persistent worries keeping people like us awake at night. This and buzzing malaria vectors.